Both Teams to Score (BTTS) Explained: How to Estimate the Probability
Updated 2026-10-035 min read
Both Teams to Score, or BTTS, asks a simple question: will each team score at least one goal? It does not matter who wins or how many goals there are. That makes it easy to understand, and easy to price roughly with a short formula.
How the market is settled
- BTTS Yes wins if both teams score at least once in normal time, including stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count.
- BTTS No wins if at least one team fails to score, including 0-0.
- Results such as 1-1, 2-1 and 3-2 are all Yes; 1-0, 2-0 and 0-0 are all No.
A short formula
With the Poisson assumption from our Over/Under guide, the chance that a team with an average of λ goals scores at least once is 1 − e^(−λ), which is one minus the chance of scoring zero.
Home expected goals 1.5: 1 − e^(−1.5) = 77.7%. Away expected goals 1.2: 1 − e^(−1.2) = 69.9%. Both score: 77.7% × 69.9% = 54.3%. Fair odds: Yes 1.84, No 2.19.
Enter the expected goals of each team to see how likely it is that both score.
Illustrative calculator. Results depend entirely on the numbers you enter.
What moves the number
- A very weak attack (expected goals close to 0.5) pulls the probability down hard, because that team's chance of scoring at least once falls to about 39%.
- Two attacking teams with weak defences push the probability up quickly: with 2.0 expected goals each it is already about 75%.
- Missing players, tactical setups and the importance of the match change the real expected goals, and so the real price.
Multiplying the two chances assumes the teams score independently. In real matches the flow of the game links the two, so the formula is a starting point and not a forecast. As always, compare the fair odds with the odds offered and keep stakes small.
Frequently asked questions
What does BTTS mean in betting?
Both Teams to Score. The bet wins if each team scores at least one goal during normal time.
Does a 0-0 draw count as BTTS No?
Yes. Any match where at least one team does not score, including 0-0, is a BTTS No.
How do you calculate the probability of BTTS?
Estimate each team's chance of scoring at least once as 1 − e^(−expected goals) and multiply the two. With 1.5 and 1.2 expected goals it is about 54.3%.
Do extra time goals count for BTTS?
No. BTTS is normally settled on the 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded.
More guides
- What Is a Value Bet? A Practical Guide With Real Numbers
- Bookmaker Margin (Overround) Explained: How to Calculate It
- Closing Line Value (CLV): The Best Test of Betting Skill
- Dropping Odds Explained: What a Falling Price Really Means
- Asian Handicap Quarter Lines (±0.25, ±0.75) Explained
- Kelly Criterion for Betting: How Much Should You Stake?
- Odds Formats Explained: Decimal, Fractional, American and Implied Probability
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals Explained: How the Market Works and How to Price It
- Surebets (Arbitrage Betting) Explained: How They Work and Why They Are Not Risk-Free
AlphaBetAI scans the markets with an ensemble of models and publishes a verifiable track record of every graded result.
Explore AlphaBetAI